February 26, 2010

A 2009 Unofficial Report on China's Social-Economic Classes

To translate this report, I had to search for information on China's political system, and the sources are listed at the end of the entry.

Before starting, here are some terms that are commonly alluded to by the report.

In terms of territorial organization:
Nation > province > direct-controlled municipality (直辖市) > city > county > village
China's political hierarchy:
Central leadership: President, Premier, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the NPC, Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, members of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, members of the Central Military Commission, etc.

bu level (部级): provincial party secretary, governor, ministers under the State Council, such as the Defense Minister, Minister of Public Security, etc.

ting level (厅级): city party secretary, mayor, directors of provincial government offices, such as the Directors for Department of Education and Department of Commerce, etc.

chu level (处级): county party secretary, county mayor, party secretary of a prefecture-level city, district mayor, directors for city departments, such as Secretary of the City Board of Education, Municipal Secretary for Commerce, etc.

ke level (科级): town party secretary, town mayor, directors of county or district level departments, such as the County Secretary for Education, the District Secretary for Commerce, etc.
All of the listed positions have a rank and can be officially regarded as officers. Below the ke level, there are village party secretaries and village heads, but these are the lowest administrative positions and do not rank in the hierarchy.

Translation: 中国阶层报告 2009第一版

The numbers in this report come from published data (mostly by the government). Out of personal interest, I used statistical methods to classify the information. I love the motherland. I love the Party Leaders. Should this report have any negative impact, would the moderator please help to delete. Thanks in advance.

Social and economic stratification has always been a hotly debated topic. Modern China is currently undergoing a period of social change, whereby the formation, decline of, and mobility between classes frequently occur. More importantly, certain groups maintain very low transparency towards the public, and the hidden assets complicate any description of the social-economic classes. Due to limited resources, I only used statistics from government sources and from well-known domestic as well as international institutions as my benchmark to create a clear model for social and economic stratification in China.

Determinants of class position:
  • Political status (as defined by occupation and rank)
  • Economic status (assessment based on existing wealth and annual income, so that both present worth and future potential are taken into account)
Note 1: Since academic and artistic resources largely depend on the two factors already mentioned, they won't be individually considered

Note 2: We evaluate gross income for farmers, and disposable income for city dwellers (that means income after tax and funds)
    
The Basic Unit Analyzed: Family

Note: Family means "parents and unmarried children" (Reference: Publications by the United Nations Population Division)

Average number of people per family is 3 in the cities and 4 in the countryside. I assumed China's total population to be 1.5 billion.
    
Classification standards:
  • Degree of separation between adjacent classes (qualitative differences)
  • Amount of resources at individuals' disposal (quantitative differences)
Note 1: This report mainly focuses on vertical stratification. Occupational differences are not considered unless they happen to significantly affect the vertical grouping.

Note 2: Mobility only exists between adjacent classes, never skipping over classes.
    
This model separates the Chinese society into 7 classes, and each is further divided down into 2 to 3 sub-classes. They are:
  • The apex and the highest class (0.001%)
  • Upper class (0.05%)
  • Upper middle class (0.5%) (further divided into sub-classes A and B)
  • Middle class (4.5%) (further divided into sub-classes A and B)
  • Lower Middle class (15%) (A and B)
  • Lower class (35%) (A, B, and C)
  • The Bottom (45%) (A and B)
Note 1: The model applies only to mainland China. It does not include Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan

Note 2: Overlaps inevitably exist between the two determinants of class position, between income and assets, and in computations for families that have more than one wage earners. We will not explain them any further as the statistical data already account for these overlaps.

Note 3: Economy and standards of living vary across regions. For Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen citizens, we multiplied their actual income or assets by 0.85. This reduction factor affected a small percentage of people in the middle, lower-middle, and lower classes.



1. The apex and the highest class (0.001%)

Those who control the political resources: currently serving second-in-command officers at the bu level and above; retired second-in-commands at the national level or first-in-command at the bu level and above.
  • Serving members of political bureaus: 25 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2004-07/14/content_1600008.htm)
  • Serving officers in 32 provinces and autonomous regions, on party committees, in government agencies, and in the NPC and CPPCC: 120 first-in-command, 780 deputy positions. The total is about 1000.
  • In the 27 departments that make up the State Council, including both first- and second-in-command: 200
  • Deputy positions at the state level, officers in the 150-some business enterprises controlled by the SASAC: 1800
  • High ranking officers in 7 major military divisions: 400
  • Retired second-in-command officials at the national level or retired first-in-command at the provincial level and above: 1600
Subtotal: 5000 people
    
Those who control the economic resources: at least 0.5 billion yuan worth of assets (annual income is not considered)
  • Hurun's 2008 "China Rich List" included 1000 people, whose assets exceeded the 0.7 billion yuan threshold. Here I assumed that the number in the 0.5-0.7 billion yuan range is also 1000.
Subtotal: 2000
    
Bottom-up statistical approaches may be used to analyze both groups. People situated at the top are few, limited strictly to those who appear in often CCTV news. Because their number is only double digits (therefore do not possess any statistical significance) and these people are related to members of the highest class either by blood and marriage, or are colleagues and long-time friends with one another, I have combined group them into one class.
    
This class comprises city families. Because class members are generally old and have no unmarried children, average number of people per household is assumed to be 2.2.
    
Class population: around 15,000 (0.001%)
    



2. Upper class (0.1%)
    

Those who control the political resources: ting level first- and second-in-commands who are currently in office; retired second-in-commands at bu level and first-in-commands at ting level     
  • In the 333 prefecture-level cities, there are 1200 first-in-commands and 7800 second-in-commands. In total, there are 10,000 officers.
  • In the 500 ting level offices under the State Council, there are, in total, 4000 first- and second-in-command positions
  • In the 3000 ting level offices under provincial governments, there are, in total, 15000 total first- and second-in-command positions
  • Senior colonels, major generals and other military posts (部队正师职以上): 3000
  • In business enterprises: 30,000
  • Other ting level officers: 35,000
Subtotal: 110,000
    
Those who control the economic resources: 50 million - 0.5 billion yuan in assets, or annual income above 3 million
  • According to Merrill Lynch's 2008 "Asia-Pacific Wealth Report," China boasts 6038 ultra High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs), whose assets exceed 30 million USD (about 0.2 billion yuan). 2000 possess assets that are worth 0.5 billion yuan and up. After subtracting the 2000 who are 5 billion yuan and up, we see that 3000 people fall into the 0.2-0.5 billion yuan range.
  • Therefore, per usual statistical patterns, the number of people in 0.1-0.2 billion range will be 5 times the number in 0.2-0.5 billion range, or about 15,000 individuals. The number of people in 0.05-0.1 billion range will be 8 times the number in 0.1-0.2 billion range, or about 120,000 individuals.
  • Those whose annual income exceeds 3 million yuan but do not fall into the preceding categories are mostly owners of entrepreneurial start-ups, high-ranking administrators in large foreign corporations, few "black gold" (people who collude with politicians to make illegal money), and few top sports stars and entertainment celebrities. Their number is around 22,000.
Subtotal: 160,000
    
This class is solely made up of city families. Because class members are generally old and have no unmarried children, average number of people per household is assumed to be 2.8.
    
Class population: 750,000 (0.05%)
    


3. Upper-middle class (0.5%)
    
This class comprises A and B subclasses.
    
Subclass A:

Those who control the political resources: chu level currently serving first-in-command officials; ting level retired second-in-command officials
  • China has about 8 million public servants (Note: Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security stated that by the end of 2003, there were 6.369 million civil servants). 1/10 or about 800,000 were first-in-command ke level and above. If we subtract out the 100,000 government employees who have been previously accounted for, there are still 700,000 officers at the chu level. 150,000 of them are first-in-command, the rest are second-in-commands.
  • First-in-command chu level officials in state-owned enterprises/institutions and in the military: 100,000
  • Retired personnel: 100,000
Subtotal: 350,000
    
Those who control the economic resources: 20 million - 50 million yuan in assets or annual income of 1.5 million - 3 million
  • By the end of 2007, says Merrill Lynch's 2008 "Asia-Pacific Wealth Report," China has 415,000 HNWIs (definition for HNWI: 1 million USD and above in personal assets, excluding value of current domicile)
Note: 1 million USD is about 10 million RMB.
  • We count 115,000 individuals with net worth above 20 million yuan, and 300,000 individuals with net worth below 20 million yuan. After subtracting the number of individuals who have already been mentioned before, we arrive at a number of 100,000 individuals between 20 million and 50 million.
  • Those whose income falls between 1.50 million and 3 million and who do not belong to the preceding categories are mostly owners of entrepreneurial start-ups, high-ranking administrators in large international corporations (located in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen), few "black gold", and few sports stars and entertainment celebrities. Their number is around 10,000.
Subtotal: 200,000
    
Subclass A population: 550,000
    
Subclass B:

Those who control the political resources: currently serving second-in-command chu level officials, retired first-in-command chu level officials
  • The data have been given out previously. Population is approximately 3 times that of subclass A: 1,000,000    
Those who control the economic resources: 10 million - 20 million yuan in assets or annual income of 800,000 - 1.5 million
  • The data for the 10 million - 20 million yuan "asset group" has been given out previously. The number is 300,000.
  • The number of individuals who earn 800,000 - 1.50 million yuan per year has been noticeably increasing. Besides owners of entrepreneurial start-ups and high-ranking administrators in large international corporations, middle-level managers in large state-owned businesses and international corporations (100,000), upper-level managers in medium sized international corporations and civilian-run enterprises, managers who qualify for incentive stock options, and a few professionals in high-paying industries (finance, energy, communication, and medicine) (100,000) are also placed on this level.

    Recent years have seen large increases in the number of "black gold" persons, sports stars and entertainment celebrities, as well as portion of the academic elite (100,000). Members of this subclass mainly reside in Beijing, Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The subclass is also emerging in other direct-controlled municipalities, well-developed provincial capitols and coastal cities.
Subtotal: 700,000
    
Subclass B population: 1,700,000
    
This segment of the Chinese population constitute the majority of buyers for luxury cars and high-grade commercial housing in first-tier cities.

This class is comprised largely city families. Average number of people per household is assumed to be 2.9.
    
Class population: 6,500,000 (0.5%) (0.15% in A, 0.35% in B)


    
4. Middle class (4.5%)
    
This class is divided into A and B subclasses:
    
Subclass A:

Those who control the political resources: Currently serving first-in-command ke level officers, retired second-in-command chu level officials
  • Nearly 1/3 of the 8 million civil servants, or 2.60 million, are ke level officials. 600,000 are first-in-commands; 2 million are second-in-commands.
  • Number of first-in-command ke level posts in military and state-controlled institutions amount to 1 million (Note: Relevant studies reveal that at the end of 2005, there were 1.25 million institutions with over 30.35 million employees).
  • Retirees are about 400,000.
Subtotal: 2 million
    
Those who control the economic resources: 5 million - 10 million yuan in assets or annual income of 500,000 - 800,000
  • In terms of assets, as a rule of thumb, we estimate the size of this group to be 2 times that of the 10 million - 20 million yuan category, or about 600,000.
  • The group whose annual income is between 500,000 to 800,000 yuan sits close to subclass B of upper-middle class, but the occupations run lower on the job spectrum. Typical senior white-collared workers and the intellectual elite reside on this level. Owners of successful small businesses, SoHo workers, second/third-tier entertainers and sports personages also belong here. The total number of individuals are 900,000 (A McKinsey report claims that in 2008, more than 1.60 million households in China take in annual income of 250,000 yuan and above). Members of this subclass mainly reside in Beijing, Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Other direct-controlled municipalities, well-developed provincial capitols and coastal cities have also seen substantial growth in numbers.
Subclass A population: 1.50 million
     
Subclass B:

Those who control the political resources: currently serving second-in-command ke level officers, retired first-in-command ke level officers
  • Partial data have already been given out. The number is 3 times that in subclass A.
Subtotal: 6 million
    
Those who control the economical resources: 1.5 million - 5 million yuan in assets or annual income of 150,000-500,000 yuan    
  • We again estimate the size of "asset group" according to statistical rule of thumb. In addition, we count people who own commercial housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou (no mortgage); as well as those who made a fortune in the 2007 stock market. Total number is 5 million.
  • The number of people who earn 150,000-500,000 yuan per year is rapidly going up (Data provided by McKinsey are conservative, and 150,000-250,000 range account for a sizeable group). The distance between the salaried citizens in this subclass and those in subclass B of upper-middle class is now quite significant (In fact, most are being directly supervised by members of upper-middle class, subclass B and of middle class, subclass A). Members include owners of enterprises still in development phase, third/fourth-tier entertainers, athletes, and upper-middle-level intellectuals. The number of individuals is 10 million. Members of this subclass mainly reside in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, other direct-controlled municipalities, some well-developed provincial capitols and coastal cities, and a few prefecture-level cities and county-level cities.
Subtotal: 15 million

Subclass B population: 21 million (Note: The number in control of economical resources exceed those in control of political resources)
  • Typically the highest social station that commoners can attain (speaking of middle class broadly). Compared to the 3 higher classes, the range of occupation is much wider. However, positional stability is also greater. The vulnerability to risks might cause member of this class to decline in social status, but in contrast to the lower 3 classes, the amount of risks to which they are exposed is less. Subclass B makes up the main consumer forces for commercial housing in first-tier cities, high-grade commercial housing in second-tier cities, and vehicles of intermediate quality.
  • This class is largely made up of city families. A few households are located in well-to-do villages along the coastal areas. Average number of people per household is assumed to be 3.    
Class population: 73 million (4.5%, 0.7% in A, 3.8% in B)
  

  
5. Lower middle class (15%): 500,000-1,500,000 yuan in assets or income of 50,000-150,000 yuan per year

This class is divided into A and B subclasses. Its members have no political power, so our discussion is purely economic-based.    

Subclass A: 900,000-1,500,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 90,000 - 150,000 yuan

Subtotal: 30 million
    
Subclass B: 500,000-900,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 50,000 - 90,000 yuan

Subtotal: 40 million
    
This class includes ordinary governmental employees, white-collared workers, some technicians, administrative staff, staff members in state-owned institutions, and wealthy farmers. Class members are widely dispersed in direct-controlled municipalities (for example Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing), provincial capitols, prefecture-level cities, some county-level cities, towns, and rural villages.
    
This class consists mostly of city dwellers and a few villagers. Average number of persons per household is 3.2.

Class population: 0.225 billion (15%, 6.5% in A, and 8.5% in B)
    


6. Lower class (35%): 150,000-500,000 yuan in assets or income of 15,000-50,000

This class are divided into A, B, C subclasses. Its members have no political power, so our discussion is purely economic-based.
    
Subclass A: 350,000-500,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 35,000 - 50,000

Subtotal: 40 million
    
Subclass B: 350,000-500,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 25,000 - 35,000

Subtotal: 40 million
    
Subclass C: 150,000-250,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 15,000 - 25,000

Subtotal: 70 million
    
This class mainly includes recent college graduates, some technicians, administrative staff, staff members in state-owned institutions (mostly in A and B), factory workers, some migrant workers, well-to-do farmers, and families that have very little savings, in which both members used to work but are now retired (mostly in B and C). Members are widely dispersed in cities of all sizes, counties, and medium to big villages, although some live in poor villages as well.
    
This class consists equally of city dwellers and villagers. Average number of persons per household is 3.5.

Class population: 0.525 billion (35%, 9% in A, 9% in B, and 17% in C)



7. The bottom (45%): 0-150,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 0-15,000
    
This class can be more finely grouped into A and B. Its members have no political power, so our discussion is purely economic-based.
    
Note: According to Wang Wenbo (王文波), Deputy Director of General Economy Statistics at National Bureau of Statistics, the average income of Chinese farmers in 2008 is 4,761 yuan.

According to survey results published by National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2009, the disposable income of residents in cities and counties is 8,856 yuan (18,000 yuan per year)

Subclass A: 50,000-150,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 5,000-15,000

Subtotal: 0.1 billion
    
Subclass b: 0-50,000 yuan in assets or annual income of 0-5,000

Subtotal: 0.07 billion
    
The unemployed in cities and counties, part-time employed, some migrant workers, and most farmers fall under this category.

This class mostly consists of families in the countryside. Average people per household is 4.

Class population: 0.68 billion (45% total, 26% in A, 19% in B)
    


Some remarks about mobility:
Members of the apex, highest class, and upper class will move back and forth within their circles. Unless there are major events [catastrophic], they will not lower further in status.

Upper-middle and middle classes can either go up or down by 1 class.

From lower class, subclass A to lower-middle class, subclass A, mobility is either up or down by 1.5 class (1 class and 1 subclass)

From lower class, subclass B to bottom class, subclass A, mobility is upward by 1.5 class or downward all the way to bottom class, subclass B.

Subclass B of bottom class may rise up by 1.5 class.

Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranks_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army (Ranks of the People's Liberation Army, as well as its Chinese wiki counterpart)
http://www.cycnet.com/cms/2006/2006youth/xw/yw/200807/t20080708_748007.htm (北京:各种组织机构职务职称将有统一英文名)

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